GOP LOOKS SOLID TO JOHN FUND – AT 7:17 A.M. ET:  John Fund of the Wall Street Joural, is one of the best election analysts around.  Yesterday we ran a Rasmussen poll indicating that the GOP is scoring better in congressional races than it has in decades.   Fund agrees, and sees strength in new places and groups:

Nothing has done more to rattle Democratic incumbents than a National Public Radio poll earlier this month on the outlook in the 70 most competitive races in the House -- 60 of which involve seats now held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans.

The numbers revealed in the poll have eye-popping implications. The NPR poll showed that Republicans lead the generic ballot test in these 70 districts by 49% to 41%, and have a five-point lead in districts with a Democratic incumbent. At the same time, Republicans have a solid 16-point lead in those competitive districts they currently hold. These numbers indicate the anti-incumbent political winds are blowing in one direction -- against the Democrats.

President Obama's numbers are down, and a president's numbers tend to predict how well his party will do.  Thus, a unique angle:

Mr. Obama's approval numbers may mask the real peril Democrats face because his job rating among blacks is an overwhelmingly positive 91%. As Michael Barone of "The Almanac of American Politics" points out, those readings imply that his job approval rating among whites is likely only about 39%.

That's especially significant because most of the 70 competitive House races polled by NPR (as well as most of the states with the closest Senate races) have below-average populations of black voters. Racial gerrymandering justified by dubious interpretations of the Voting Rights Act has concentrated blacks into mostly safe Democratic districts, meaning now that most competitive seats are more white than average. These districts are more likely to be hostile to President Obama's agenda, and thus more likely to be treacherous political terrain for Democrats. No wonder party strategists are so worried about this fall.

COMMENT:  Four months to the election.  There does not appear to be anything on the horizon, except for a surprise, that can reverse the Democrats' standing.  And the president's approach to his job seems half-hearted.  This could be a repeat of the great Republican victory of 1994, except that the press is determined not to let it happen.  Look for bias this year even greater, if possible, than in 2008. 

It is rumored that Christiane Amanpour will offer herself as a human sacrifice in exchange for a Democratic victory.  You know, that deal I'd take.

June 30, 2010